China's predicted growth brings hope to global economy

China's predicted growth brings hope to global economy

February 2023

The Chinese government has announced its intention to unlock consumer spending power in China's market, moving decisively away from its earlier Zero-Covid policies and signalling its intention to welcome global trade once again as a means of fuelling domestic growth.

Economists hope that Beijing's moves to stimulate repressed consumer activity in China will also bolster global demand, particularly as its citizens enjoy their freedom to travel overseas once again.

Releasing Chinese consumer demand

China's outgoing Premier, Li Keqiang, said that the key to China's true economic potential lies in releasing the pent-up demand of 1.4 billion Chinese consumers. By encouraging consumption, Beijing hopes that accelerated domestic production will follow. At the same time, the Chinese Central Bank is preparing to offer targeted support to struggling industries, including transport and logistics, via lending and other structural policy mechanisms.

Encouraging figures

After several years of draconian Covid lockdowns, the Chinese economy grew by just 3pc in 2022, underscoring the crippling effect of Beijing's zero-Covid strategy. However, the United Nations has predicted that the Chinese economy will grow by 4.8pc this year, in direct response to concerted government efforts to reopen the economy. Global banking brands such as Barclays, Netwest and Unilever have also upwardly revised their growth forecasts for China on the back of the news, and manufacturers such as Unilever have said that they expect to see growth in their Chinese business divisions in the coming year.

China's consumption patterns have already been boosted by the Spring Festival holiday, which saw consumer spending boosted by 12.2pc against 2022. Xinhua reported that China's box office takings were $1 billion; the second-highest on record for the important festival period. UnionPay reported a 60pc growth in transaction values for Chinese cards used overseas, and AliPay reported that hotel consumption spending was up by 80pc.

Some analysts now believe that China's stock markets are about to enter a bull market phase, and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have increased their growth forecasts for China this year too, to 5.5pc and 5.7pc respectively.

Notes of caution

Other economists have sounded caution, however, pointing to the fact that Chinese customers chose to grow their savings during the pandemic rather than switch their spending habits entirely to online domestic shopping. Many Chinese have also felt the challenges of the country's real estate crash and income pressures. Concerns about earnings, employment and the ability to eventually get onto the property ladder are all particularly high amongst China's younger generations and may exceed their demand to consume luxury goods, travel experiences and overseas education in quite the same way that they did pre-Covid.

However, the overall sentiment is one of optimism. The cautious hope now is that the might of this economic giant can be powered up to help stimulate a global economic boost, at a time when the world is still feeling the lingering effects of Covid lockdowns, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty. All eyes are now on China's shoppers, and their willingness to embrace consumerism once again.

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